As the rebels moved further into Ukraine, in February 2015, representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE and the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk signed a 13-point agreement, now known as the Minsk 2 accord.However, due to violations by both sides, the agreement did not last long.Under Minsk 1, Ukraine and the Russia-backed rebels agreed on a 12-point ceasefire deal, which included prisoner exchanges, delivery of humanitarian assistance, and the withdrawal of heavy weapons.Ukraine, Russia, and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) with mediation by France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. Minsk 1 was written in September 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, i.e.There are two Minsk agreements, Minsk 1 and Minsk 2, named after the Belarussian capital Minsk where the talks were held.One way to prevent the outbreak of a war would be to implement the Minsk agreements immediately, as Russia has suggested. If the situation in the Donbass escalates, the possibility of a war cannot be dismissed.
What has changed now is that the shelling has intensified since last October 2021 when Russia began amassing troops along the borders with Ukraine.Since then, these predominantly Russian speaking regions (more than 70% speak Russian) within Ukraine have been witnessing shelling and skirmishes between the rebels and Ukrainian forces leading to the loss of over 14,000 lives by most estimates, creating around 1.5 million registered Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and destruction of the local economy.In April, pro-Russia rebels began seizing territory (with Russia supporting them through hybrid warfare) in Eastern Ukraine and in May 2014, the rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions held a referendum to declare independence from Ukraine.The Donbass region, comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, has been at the centre of the conflict since March 2014 when Moscow (Russia) invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula.As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.The western countries have rejected the demand.It has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe.It wants Western Countries to guarantee that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members.Charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historic lands and after the Soviet collapse was used by the West to contain Russia.It blamed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) for the current crisis and called the US-led alliance an existential threat to Russia.The announcement shatters a 2015 peace deal signed in Minsk requiring Ukrainian authorities to offer a broad self-rule to the rebel regions.Tensions have peaked over the last few weeks as Russia amassed over 1,50,000 troops at Ukraine borders in one of the worst crises since the Cold War.This paved the way to provide them military support - a direct challenge to the West that will fuel fears that Russia could imminently invade Ukraine.Recently, Russia recognised the Ukraine rebel regions in eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk – as independent areas despite calls from the west to put an end to the tensions driven by fears that Russia may attack Ukraine. For Prelims: Location of Ukraine and the Neighbourhood, Ukraine Crisis, Russia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Minsk agreements, OSCE, NATO.įor Mains: Bilateral Groupings & Agreements, Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India's Interests, Ukraine Crisis and its Geopolitical Implications.
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